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Labor will win

July 20th 2010 02:04
Well I'm ready to call the Oz federal election: Labor will win. Gillard is killing Abbott, who is a lousy option, the Libs are still dealing with the Howard legacy (and in fact have gone backwards) in things like industrial relations and climate change, and the preference deal with the Greens will consolidate Labor's vote.
So Labor should win relatively easily, and the Libs will then dump Abbott. Maybe Turnbull will make a comeback, or Hockey's vacillating will be rewarded, or Bishop will see her chance with an incumbent female PM.
But it is all pretty uninteresting as neither party is onto the real issues. The new, young voters will eventually force pollies to confront climate change and the economic reconstruction it requires, but by then the best options will have disappeared. The failure to face up to climate change is not just the worst market failure in history, as Stern pointed out, but also the worst political failure in history



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The Hawke legacy

July 19th 2010 01:22
Hawke's latest champion, Blanche D'alpuget, is busily trying to rewrite the Hawke narrative as a love story. Well, this would suit her but those of us who would rather he had his mind on the job of running the country are not so impressed.
In the end, the Hawke-Keating years were not what Oz needed and simply set up Howard to do his worst. He stripped away the constraints on markets and turned Oz into a less fair and ultimately less viable society.
Hawke was never anything like a good economic manager and left that to big business and big unions with his famous consultative style. Once the unions fell away, as they were always going to once globalisation took hold, this left big business and their flunky Howard in the driver's seat



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Carbon price

July 19th 2010 01:10
Abbott has vowed to never introduce a carbon price. We should be clear what this means. A price on carbon is essential to enable a new low-carbon economy to emerge and has been the overall desire of business because it keeps them at the core of dealing with global warming. So Abbott is saying he will basically not address the global warming issue at all.
And of course this is because he really doesn't believe there is a problem. It would be convenient to believe he is doing this out of cynical political pragmatism, but there is a much simpler answer. Abbott is a not very intelligent man driven by inner needs to assert himself and his out-dated worldview. A more dangerous leader is hard to imagine.
Gillard is at least smart, even if she has mostly put her intelligence to work in her own interests. Maybe she will rise to the challenge once she is leader on her own merits (ie after an election), but so far the evidence is against her


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Sustainable population growth

July 18th 2010 01:44
So now both Gillard and Abbott are tip-toeing around the population issue. They know someone has to introduce a population policy soon, but neither wants to attract the ire of the religious fanatics on one hand and the closet racists on the other. Right now we have policies that promote having more children and high levels of immgration, so something has to give if we are to maintain high standards of living in Oz, not to mention a reasonably benign environment.
Both Gillard and Abbott use the term 'sustainable' as if they know what it means. Gillard might be able to grasp the idea in time, but God-fearing Tony never could. Sustainability is about recognising natural limits, not just assuming the priority of political expediency or moral superiority. Abbott is so dumb he wants the Productivity Commission, whose job is to remove constraints on market forces, to oversee efforts to promote sustainability.
There are many astute observers who think Oz is already over-populated. Our size is deceptive as we actually live on the coastal fringes of a vast desert. In fact, those people that have lived in the interior are heading into the already bursting cities. The ACF just did their annual survey and pointed out that all Oz cities are unsustainable.
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The Bob and Paul show

July 17th 2010 02:15
It's always good to see old pollies emerge from their cushy retirement to try and rewrite history, as Hawke and Keating did last week. Whatever they wish to claim, we should recall that their real legacy was to change Oz from one kind of country into another kind. In short, they threw open the doors to the forces of globalisation which means most of the core decisions that affect the lives of Oztralians are now made overseas, often by corporate CEOs.
There was an alternative. The ACTU sent a mission overseas to check out how other countries were facing this thorny issue. They came back with 3 basic models - the Anglo-American neo-liberal model, the Japanese model and the Scandinavian model.
The latter-most model, with government playing a key role in managing national competitiveness in global markets (as oppsed to the neo-liberal model where markets - meaning mostly transnational corporations - hold sway) was well suited to the situation in Oz and should have appealed to a Labor government. As I recall, it was the one favoured by the ACTU


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Another new political party

July 16th 2010 01:24
Anther political party has been formed to claim the middle ground in Oz politics. Going by the really stupid name of the Republican Democrats it is formed by an ex-Liberal and an ex-Laborite. That should set the alarm bells ringing to start with...
The idea that somehow the ALP and Coalition represent genuine left and right positions in the national politcal arena, and therefore someone in the middle, like Goldilock's porridge, is 'just right', is ridiculous. The reality is that politics has shifted so far to the right in recent decades the Australian Democrats were left out on the left, and so of course are the Greens. Howard's envelopment of One Nation showed how little room there is on the right, except for out and out fascists, and the rise to power of Abott over the actual liberal Turnbull show how far right the Liberals have gone.
Recall that the Democrats set out to be a centrist party ('to keep the bastards honest', as Don Chipp put it) but always understood the limitations of that strategy. That is until that supreme idiot Meg Lees made her grab for political power and found obscurity instead


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The Oakes ambush

July 16th 2010 01:08
So Gillard handled the Oakes ambush at the National Press Club well, but the underlying reality is that she already has mud on her skirt. It also seems the relationship between her and Rudd is doomed.
If the accusation is correct that she did a deal with Rudd and then reneged, and we can only assume it is, then Gillard's primary characteristic - her lust for power - is confirmed yet again.
Hawke and Keating have just reminded us how messy politics can become when the top insiders work it all out between themselves. In this situation character flaws become national tragedy, and the political system itself loses credibility


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The asylum seekers debate

July 15th 2010 00:26
The fact that we are even having a debate about asylum seekers and not about immigration proper is an indication of just how hopeless Oz politics is. The Libs know this is a hot button issue that brings out the worst in Oz society, so they want to push it hard. Meanwhile, desperate men, women and children huddle in leaky boats hoping for the best.
And once global warming gets going, Oz can expect waves of environmental refugees that will make the current situation look like what it is - nothing really difficult to deal with given a modicum of good will.
Our immigration policy should be built on how many people Oz can actually handle in ecological terms, and that should be decided by cool science. Certainly the mad 'growth at any cost' adherents should be put in their place as we work out a balanced approach


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The Nationals and the bush

July 14th 2010 02:12
Travelling around in the bush as I did recently it was interesting to see all the election posters for National Party candidates. I've always thought Country Party and National Party pollies had the easiest job in the land due to their committed constituency. This, I think, explains why people like Wilson Tuckey get away with it election after election.
One reason why they have it so good has been the deal with the Libs that they won't compete and Labor's concession of rural seats to the Coalition. Labor of course began in rural Queensland but has since given up the fight in the country.
Things are changing, however. Climate change and peak oil will hit rural areas first and hardest (indeed, already are with the strange weather we have nowadays) and sooner or later the Nationals we need to get onto that. So far they have been lamentable with people like Tuckey and Joyce pretending nothing is wrong


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Another election...

July 13th 2010 04:57
Well, I'm back from my little sojourn in the country and contemplating the Oz political scene with fresh eyes. And what I see is an election coming up, and a dull one at that.
Gillard is clearing the decks by succumbing to pressure from the people who actually run the country (big business) and the ever-fearful electorate (immigration) so Labor can squeak back into office.
This is a very unexciting election. The relief and hope of getting rid of Howard has dissipated and Labor under Gillard looks to be even less interesting than it was under Rudd. And if, heaven forfend, Abbott were to win, years of vicious right-wing rule would ensue. So not much to stir the blood there


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July 2010
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