Labor will win
July 20th 2010 02:04
Well I'm ready to call the Oz federal election: Labor will win. Gillard is killing Abbott, who is a lousy option, the Libs are still dealing with the Howard legacy (and in fact have gone backwards) in things like industrial relations and climate change, and the preference deal with the Greens will consolidate Labor's vote.
So Labor should win relatively easily, and the Libs will then dump Abbott. Maybe Turnbull will make a comeback, or Hockey's vacillating will be rewarded, or Bishop will see her chance with an incumbent female PM.
But it is all pretty uninteresting as neither party is onto the real issues. The new, young voters will eventually force pollies to confront climate change and the economic reconstruction it requires, but by then the best options will have disappeared. The failure to face up to climate change is not just the worst market failure in history, as Stern pointed out, but also the worst political failure in history.
Actually, I see a big backlash as a new generation takes over the political system in coming decades. Even as climate change starts to really manifest, governments will begin to claw back some of the money the baby boomers claimed for themselves in the 1990s and early 2000s. New taxes on land, super and other assets may well arise as a younger electorate realises they have been sold out.
So Labor should win relatively easily, and the Libs will then dump Abbott. Maybe Turnbull will make a comeback, or Hockey's vacillating will be rewarded, or Bishop will see her chance with an incumbent female PM.
But it is all pretty uninteresting as neither party is onto the real issues. The new, young voters will eventually force pollies to confront climate change and the economic reconstruction it requires, but by then the best options will have disappeared. The failure to face up to climate change is not just the worst market failure in history, as Stern pointed out, but also the worst political failure in history.
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